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Live signal track record (out-of-sample)

REAL resolved outcomes (not simulated) of Buy-grade calls generated after the model froze on May 31, 2026 — completed bullish patterns past the ≥55% gate, held 5 days. Genuinely forward / out-of-sample. 33 resolved, Jun 2, 2026–Jul 8, 2026.

Avg outcome (5d)
-5.29%
Win / loss size
0.7×
+7.3% / -10.7%
Win rate
30%
Resolved calls
33
Held to 5 days with no exits — the app's take-profit/stop discipline historically lifts this further (see the simulated backtest below). The edge is payoff-driven: winners outsize losers ~0.7:1.
LLY-4.5%JNJ-0.3%RKLB-22.8%WMT-3.1%RIVN+7.8%CAT-7.5%INTC-25.9%INTC-12.5%INTC-12.5%AMD+0.1%ASTS-28.1%ASTS+5.3%FOX+3.9%FOXA+5.6%SNY+0.2%

Backtest Results

In-sample backtest · 2021-06-01 → 2026-06-05 · v0.28.0-ml-smallcap-2sided-gate-2026-05-31

⚠️ Not out-of-sample: the pattern stats and the ≥55% gate were computed over this same period, so these returns are inflated by hindsight. See the walk-forward reality check below, and the live track record above — those are the honest numbers.

Reality check: the clean walk-forward

We re-ran history the honest way: at each step, patterns were selected and scored using only data available at the time — no hindsight in the stats or in which patterns were chosen (7 expanding folds, 2023→2026, 165 trades).

Strategy +36.4%S&P 500 +99.5%-63.1pp vs the index

Tested honestly, the historical strategy did not beat buying and holding the index. That result is why we don't market backtest returns — including the in-sample figure below — and instead grade every live signal in public (the track record above). We publish the test that argued against us; that's the deal.

Total Return (in-sample)
+209.3%
$+20926
Win Rate
62.6%
254 closed trades
Sharpe Ratio
1.339
annualized, per-trade
Max Drawdown
-31.6%
peak-to-trough
vs SPY (same period)
+75.8%
Alpha: +133.5%
Avg Win
+4.56%
per winning trade
Avg Loss
-4.36%
per losing trade
Trades Open at End
4
force-closed at last price
Equity Curve

Starting capital $10k · equal-weight, up to 15 names · ≥55% chance · per-pattern hold (Option C, 5–21d) · dilutive/guidance Buys withheld · insider-buy Watch→Buy upgrades · green = strategy · blue = SPY

Exits follow the app's sell signals: 139 take-profit · 9 cut-loss · 106 held to window

$7.5k$13.4k$19.3k$25.1k$31.0k202120222023202420252026StrategySPY

Top 10 Best Trades

TickerEntryExitReturnScorePattern
TTOO2023-08-172023-08-18+23.5%18Regulatory approval confirmation (2 steps, 21d outcome)
AMD2026-05-052026-05-06+18.6%17Triple-confluence bullish — 1% threshold (2 steps, 5d outcome)
JOBY2026-04-302026-05-06+14.5%16Multi-source bullish consensus (2 steps, 10d outcome)
ACHR2024-12-202024-12-24+13.8%4Earnings dip-and-recover (2 steps, 10d outcome)
BBBY2021-11-042021-11-05+11.9%17Quiet breakout confluence (2 steps, 21d outcome)
COHR2022-11-102022-11-11+10.4%16Triple-confluence bullish — 1% threshold (2 steps, 5d outcome)
LLY2021-12-142021-12-15+10.4%18Regulatory approval confirmation (2 steps, 21d outcome)
AMD2021-11-052021-11-08+10.1%17Triple-confluence bullish — 1% threshold (2 steps, 5d outcome)
SI2022-10-202022-10-25+10.1%18Regulatory approval confirmation (2 steps, 21d outcome)
ASTS2026-05-212026-05-22+10.0%16Bullish news + momentum (2 steps, 10d outcome)

Top 10 Worst Trades

TickerEntryExitReturnScorePattern
INO2021-08-132021-08-19-15.8%18Regulatory approval confirmation (2 steps, 21d outcome)
CVNA2022-05-172022-05-18-15.8%16Multi-source bullish consensus (2 steps, 10d outcome)
MRNA2021-08-102021-08-11-15.6%18

Backtest uses adj_close prices (splits/dividends adjusted). Equal-weight $/trade. Long-only. Does not account for slippage, commissions, or market impact. In-sample caveat: the patterns and the ≥55% gate were selected with knowledge of this 2021→ history, so this is evidence the logic is sound, not a clean out-of-sample result — the out-of-sample test is the live track record above. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The numbers are the numbers.

Regulatory approval confirmation (2 steps, 21d outcome)
UBER2022-05-052022-05-09-14.1%12Triple-confluence bullish — 1% threshold (2 steps, 5d outcome)
BNTX2021-08-102021-08-11-13.8%18Triple-confluence bullish — 1% threshold (2 steps, 5d outcome)
MRNA2022-08-042022-08-16-13.5%16Multi-source bullish consensus (2 steps, 10d outcome)
PFE2024-10-252024-11-15-12.8%18Regulatory approval confirmation (2 steps, 21d outcome)
LLY2021-08-262021-09-22-12.6%18Regulatory approval confirmation (2 steps, 21d outcome)
VRT2026-05-062026-05-20-12.1%16Multi-source bullish consensus (2 steps, 10d outcome)
C2022-05-262022-06-10-11.8%16Bullish news + momentum (2 steps, 10d outcome)